Ty Simpson rolled into Indy as the most talked-about quarterback, actually throwing, and he didn’t exactly quiet the noise around his draft stock. With Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza sitting out, every rep Simpson took became a referendum on whether he’s really a first-rounder or more of a Day 2 swing.
His performance backed up the arm talent and athleticism, but it also kept the spotlight on lingering questions about decision-making and poise under pressure. Now, in a thin quarterback class, that mix of upside and uncertainty might be enough to push him into the late first round, anyway.
One AFC Scout Offered Assessment on Ty Simpson’s Combine Outing
With all eyes on Simpson last Saturday, an anonymous AFC scout said, “I wouldn’t draft him until Day 2, but I think he has a chance to go in that 20-32 range. It’s because the demand will highly outweigh the quality of supply in this year’s class.”
Regardless of how experts feel about Simpson’s draft stock, the scout is completely right about this year’s quarterback class. The demand certainly outweighs the supply, as outside of soon-to-be first overall pick Fernando Mendoza, the cupboards are bare.
Outside of Simpson and Mendoza, the top group includes Garrett Nussmeier, Carson Beck, Drew Allar, and Cade Clubnik – all prospects that came into the 2025 season with first-round hype, but fell well short of expectations. It would be generally surprising if even one of the aforementioned names became a Day 2 pick.
In terms of what the scout said about Simpson’s range, it’s spot on when thinking about his value, regardless of position. While Simpson showed top-end play through much of the 2025 season via strong arm strength, clean mechanics, and play-extending athleticism, he needs to improve in the areas of decision-making and pocket awareness – something not uncommon in a quarterback with limited starting experience.
However, we know that all NFL positions aren’t valued equally, and that a quarterback with strong upside can occasionally be drafted over less glamorous positions that represent greater value based on the best-player-available approach.
Going into the NFL draft, quite a few teams could be looking to take a first-round quarterback outside the Las Vegas Raiders, including the New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers, and even the Los Angeles Rams if they choose to begin a Matthew Stafford succession plan into action.
Simpson put the Crimson Tide in 2025 during his lone year as a starter, throwing for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns, earning him an 85.4 grade from PFSN’s College QB Impact Grades.
He’ll have one more chance to significantly influence his draft grade during this process, at Alabama’s Pro Day on March 25. After that, it’ll be up to the 32 general managers to decide where he ends up.
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