‘True X-Factor’ — Jets Predicted to Shake Up 2026 NFL Draft With Surprise Pick at No. 2

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In just under 48 hours, the 2026 NFL Draft will be officially open. While the Raiders have had Fernando Mendoza locked in as the first overall pick for months, the Jets’ pick at second overall has been much more contested between high-impact edge rushers Arvell Reese and David Bailey, but what if neither of them goes to New York as widely expected?

What Happens if the Jets Don’t Select an Edge Rusher at Second Overall?

Edge rusher is one of, if not the biggest, needs for the Jets; however, their massive hole at wide receiver needs to be addressed, and all the top options could be gone by the time they’re back on the clock at pick 16.

PFSN’s latest 3-round mock draft explores the possibility of general manager Darren Mougey electing to select a wide receiver at second overall, going with Ohio State standout Carnell Tate.

On the pick, PFSN analyst Allison Koehler said, “Carnell Tate enters the 2026 NFL Draft as PFSN’s WR1 and a true X-factor after a breakout evolution in his game. He flashed early with a 52-733-4 line in 2024 despite being Ohio State’s third option behind Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, but his route running was still raw. That changed in 2025, as Tate developed into a polished technician with rare sink, throttle control, and stem IQ for his size.”

Koehler makes a great point on Tate’s early showout and the positive picture it painted for the rest of his Ohio State career. Being able to put up those numbers behind Smith, who earned First-Team All-Big Ten Honors, and Egbuka, who’d go on to get drafted 19th overall last year, showed just how big an impact Tate could make despite not being the focal point of the offense.

A Look at Tate’s 2025 Production

He’d go on to put up 875 yards on 51 catches and nine touchdowns in 2025, making opponents pay dearly when they gave too much attention to Smith. This would earn him an 84.5 grade according to PFSN’s CFB WR Impact data, good enough for the eighth highest in the nation.

Koehler would go on to say, “He still brings long-strider speed, elite body control, and exceptional catch-point dominance, evidenced by a 28.2% catch rate above expectation, while now consistently separating at all levels and delivering in key moments. Though not a major run-after-catch threat, Tate profiles as a complete X receiver with All-Pro upside in the mold of George Pickens.”

Whether he goes to the Jets, or possibly the Tennessee Titans at the fourth pick, or the New York Giants at the fifth pick, one franchise will be getting a receiver they can build their offense around.

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